Neues vom Konsens über die Notwendigkeit eines Fiskalstimulus
Stefan Homburg über die Krise, in der ZDF-Mediathek.
Und dann noch ein Statement von Robert Barro:
I am not sure what you mean by "consensus." You don't think it's pretty wild to have a multiplier of 1.5, so that government spending is not only free, it has negative costs? The only informative empirical work I know of (from Valerie Ramey and my own work) finds multipliers associated with defense spending that are positive but less than one. In Valerie's work, this shows up as a negative effect from added government military purchases on private consumer spending. Multipliers for other forms of government spending are imprecisely determined but are not significantly different from zero. Actually, I hope that my current long-term empirical project will shed more light, including macro effects from changes in marginal tax rates.
You want me to ignore good economic theory and empirical analysis and pretend that a voodoo multiplier above one should be respected as a "consensus?"
Und dann noch ein Statement von Robert Barro:
I am not sure what you mean by "consensus." You don't think it's pretty wild to have a multiplier of 1.5, so that government spending is not only free, it has negative costs? The only informative empirical work I know of (from Valerie Ramey and my own work) finds multipliers associated with defense spending that are positive but less than one. In Valerie's work, this shows up as a negative effect from added government military purchases on private consumer spending. Multipliers for other forms of government spending are imprecisely determined but are not significantly different from zero. Actually, I hope that my current long-term empirical project will shed more light, including macro effects from changes in marginal tax rates.
You want me to ignore good economic theory and empirical analysis and pretend that a voodoo multiplier above one should be respected as a "consensus?"
Jan Schnellenbach - 11. Februar 2009 um 23.44 Uhr